Forecasting the solvency of PJSC IC "Rosgosstrakh" to determine financial stability for the period up to 2026

Abstract

Introduction. In conditions of financial instability of an insurance company, which arises against the backdrop of problems of solvency, the management of the organization must introduce new methods of managing it. The relevance of the study lies in the fact that every year insurance companies succumb to increasing risks of insolvency (due to political and economic restrictions), so enterprises are creating new ways to eliminate it: timely forecast of solvency and prompt analysis of the forecast results in order to increase financial stability and efficiency.

Goal. Clarifying the methodology for assessing the level of risks of insurance systems, identifying the advantages of predicting the solvency of an insurance company for a long-term period (from 3 years), which can lead to a more in-depth analysis of the financial stability of the organization and providing competitive advantages.

Materials and methods. In the process of research, methods of comparisons, analogies, factor analysis, calculation-constructive methods, groupings, economic and statistical methods, generalizations and other methods of scientific research were used.

Results and discussion. In the course of the work, solvency and solvency margin were predicted in order to determine financial stability using the example of the research object, Public Joint Stock Company Insurance Company "Rosgosstrakh". The forecast is carried out using the analytical leveling method with the construction of a linear trend model based on indicators that determine the components of solvency, adjusted for inflation. The final results are summed up as a result of variance analysis of PJSC IC "Rosgosstrakh".

Conclusion. Based on the results of the study, we can conclude that the company’s solvency for 2024-2026 will be at a neutral level, which does not clearly indicate negative or positive consequences, as a result of which the company’s management must develop methods to increase solvency by at least a few percent, to avoid negative financial sustainability outcomes.