Empirical analysis of regional and sectoral aspects of corporate bankruptcy

Introduction. Bankruptcy and insolvency analytics is primarily a subject of applied research. Interfax regularly publishes results and statistics of bankruptcies by quarter, but the main disadvantage of such analytics is a short period of analysis, usually up to one year; the second drawback is the lack of assessment of the connection between various indicators in the analyzed area. It seems appropriate to conduct a comprehensive study of insolvency by region, industry and taking into account the relationship between bankruptcy indicators and non-specific, general economic indicators. Goal. The purpose of the work is an empirical study of the dynamics and structure of corporate bankruptcies in Russia in the context of industries, regions, over a long period of time and testing of the integrated use of statistical tools, financial analysis and case studies for  assessing  bankruptcies  at  the  macro- and  mesoeconomic  levels. Materials  and  methods.  The  information  base  of  the  study  included  statistical materials  from  Interfax  (Fedresurs),  Rosstat (EMISS),  statistics  from  the  Arbitration  Court  of  the  Stavropol  Krai,  financial  statements  of  bankrupt companies for the last three years of their operation before bankruptcy. The work accumulated data for the period from 2015 to the present, in particular, quarterly over 2019–2024. The authors used statistical analysis methods to analyze the dynamics and structure based on the statistics of corporate bankruptcies;  methods  of  financial  analysis  and  modeling – to  assess  the  likelihood  of  bankruptcy  of  companies;  graphical  method – to  identify tendencies and trends in insolvency processes at the macro and meso level. The listed tools were used to assess the level and dynamics of individual indicators of Fedresurs statistics in terms of corporate bankruptcies, satisfaction of creditor claims, at a regional and industry level. The use of the case study method made it possible to show the specific reasons for the bankruptcy of companies in the most sensitive industries. Results and discussion. The work examined the dynamics of corporate bankruptcies since 2015. Since 2019, the analysis has been carried out quarterly, which made it possible to take into account the latest tendencies and trends in the economy. The authors examined industry characteristics and causes of company bankruptcy. The emphasis is on regional statistics: the North-Caucasus Federal District and the Stavropol Krai. A decrease in the number of bankruptcies was revealed, which corresponds to national trends and is a consequence of the regulation of insolvency processes by the state. To reveal the specific causes  of  insolvency,  three  cases  of  bankrupt  companies  from  the  Stavropol  Territory  were  considered.  The  case  studies  were  supplemented  with financial indicators  and  modeling  of the bankruptcy  risk  of  the  target  companies. Conclusion. Conclusions  are drawn  about  the  main  trends in  the field of insolvency, the key causes of bankruptcies are highlighted, the relevance of models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy is shown, and directions for further research are proposed.

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